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TMCNet: Growth depends on global trends [Bangkok Post, Thailand]

[November 05, 2009]

Growth depends on global trends [Bangkok Post, Thailand]

(Bangkok Post (Thailand) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Nov. 5--Thailand's growth in 2010 still largely hinges on a revival in international trade.

But the outlook for the US and European economies remains poor despite signs of a local recovery, says BDP International, a leading transport firm.

Asia is leading the world out of recession with clear signs of recovery in Thailand. BDP is cautiously optimistic about the Thai economy next year, said president and CEO Richard Bolte.

"For Thailand to enjoy economic growth in 2010, the nation will need to deliver a strong trade performance. We are sceptical of recovery in (global) consumer demand and the retail sector while jobless figures are still high in the West. ... The sourcing markets of Asia are fuelled to a great extent by robust consumer demand which still appears to be in a holding pattern in the West," he said.

Stricter environmental regulations, as in the Map Ta Phut case, may lead to increased competition from feedstock-rich Middle East countries to attract petrochemical investment, he said.

Similar challenges caused many industries to relocate from Europe to Asian countries such as Thailand and China.

The increase in regulatory risk from the Map Ta Phut case may result in investors selecting sites in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, he said.

Headquartered in the US, BDP reported total revenue of $1.6 billion in 2008 with 4,000 customers worldwide. Active in more than 120 countries, the privately held company is the United States' top ocean-freight operator.

World trade would decline this year and is expected to return to growth of 3 percent to 5 percent next year, said Mr Bolte.

In Thailand, the electronics sector should benefit from Chinese demand, while improvements are seen in the chemical and petrochemical industries.

Even though Thailand's gross domestic product bounced back in the second quarter, the stability of any economy remains uncertain, he said.

Recent forecasts suggest that Asia could grow by at least 5 percent in 2009, with encouraging figures reported from China and Singapore.

But G7 economies will contract by 3.5 percent as Germany and the UK continue to see low or zero growth, and recovery in the US has been uneven, he said.

Consumer spending typically fuels industrial production and business expansion, which power recovery, but no such dynamic has emerged yet, he added.

He made the comments ahead of a global conference on transport and logistics that BDP International is holding in Bangkok from today to Sunday.

Operators from more than 50 countries will attend the forum to discuss the world economy and whether the recovery in Asia will last.

To see more of the Bangkok Post, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.bangkokpost.com.

Copyright (c) 2009, Bangkok Post, Thailand Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

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