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TMCNet: OPINION: If it feels like a recession that is what matters

[September 06, 2008]

OPINION: If it feels like a recession that is what matters

(The Sun (Yuma, AZ)(KRT) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Sep. 6--Most of the economic news seems pretty dark these days, so it was not surprise that a senior economist told Greater Yuma Economic Development investors things are bad.

Some described the talk as grim and his use of the word recession to describe current conditions is certainly stronger language than other economists have used.

While the federal government's technical requirements for a recession have not yet been recorded, it certainly feels like one, and in the end how consumers feel about the economy is what counts since that impacts their spending.

The bad news is that it may be a long time until we see a turnaround. Jim Rounds, vice president and senior economist of the financial consulting firm Elliot D. Pollock and Company, told GEDYC there would be some weak improvement next year, but the recession wouldn't end until 2010.

"It will be a long and painful recession," he said. "We're sliding down. We're not at the bottom yet. Sorry to be pessimistic, but that' what it is."

Wow, that's not a statement that will brighten your day.

But before the Yuma audience left, Rounds did have a little good news for them, and for the rest of us living here. He said the Yuma area doesn't seem to have been hit as hard as a lot of other areas. We are hurting, but we are not on life support like some places.

I think that is something many have sensed, and fortunately there is some information that seems to confirm it.

Recently we reported that our real estate market was stabilizing. It is not the boom market of a couple of years ago, but it isn't in the toilet either. Houses are selling, although at lower prices.

Rounds noted that is because homes were not overbuilt here to the extent that they were in other markets, so the full impact of the national housing crisis did not hit. There is more of a balance between supply and demand here.

A couple of other significant indicators have been seen also.

Our economy is heavily dependent on our winter visitor season. Many local businesses look to the winter months to keep them profitable. A poor season can be hard on them.

Fortunately, it appears winter visitors have not been discouraged by higher gas prices or economic conditions. They are making their reservations to return. In fact, we are likely to see a renewed flow of Canadians due to the favorable dollar exchange rate which makes their money go further.

The other bit of information that is particularly significant is that the city of Yuma's hospitality tax on restaurants, bars and hotels was up 4.57 percent in the 2007-2008 fiscal year.

This 2 percent tax is collected on discretionary spending for the most part. People can decide not to eat out, for example, so they can save money to deal with higher gas prices or other increased expenses. So when discretionary spending like this continues, it is a good sign Yuma area folks are doing OK.

Let us hope this continues. No one wants to see a full-blown recession arrive here.

--

Terry Ross is director of The Sun's News and Information Center. E-mail him at tross@yumasun.com or phone him at 539-6870.

To see more of The Sun or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.yumasun.com/.
Copyright (c) 2008, The Sun, Yuma, Ariz.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

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